Decoupling Economic Growth from Municipal Waste Generation: A Data-Driven Analysis of Circular Economy Policies

Abstract

Introduction:

Rapid urbanization, increased consumption, and economic growth have accelerated municipal waste generation worldwide, challenging existing waste management systems and environmental sustainability. Circular economy (CE) policies have emerged as strategies to decouple economic growth from waste generation while promoting resource recovery and sustainability across various regions and income levels.

Objective:

This study evaluates the effectiveness of CE policies in mitigating municipal waste generation and improving recycling performance. By analyzing global trends, income-level disparities, and regional differences, it investigates how interventions, such as integrating informal recycling sectors into formal systems, can provide economic, environmental, and social benefits.

Methods:

A comprehensive, data-driven approach was used to assess the relationship between economic growth and waste generation within the context of CE policies. The study employed time-series analysis to track waste generation from 2020 to 2050, correlation analysis to explore per capita waste production and income levels, and scenario modeling to project the impacts of CE interventions. Data were sourced from the "What a Waste 2.0" report, World Bank income statistics, and case studies from cities like Cambridge, Yokohama, and Tacloban.

Results:

Global waste generation is projected to increase from 2,240 million tonnes in 2020 to 3,880 million tonnes by 2050, with significant differences between income groups. High-income regions generate substantially more per capita waste than low-income regions. Low-income groups primarily produce organic waste, while high-income areas generate more plastics and packaging. Recycling rates vary widely, ranging from 5% in low-income areas to 60% in high-income regions. Economic assessments indicate that formalizing the informal recycling sector could significantly enhance economic contributions, especially in regions like Asia and Africa. Environmental projections suggest that CE policy interventions could reduce waste generation by 17.5% compared to business-as-usual scenarios,